Under the spotlight of the global economic stage, an unsettling waltz is unfolding The latest warning from Vanguard is like a jarring out-of-tune violin, interrupting the previously cheerful economic symphony. The rhythm of this dance is becoming chaotic— economic growth has slowed to a feeble beat of 0.8%, while the drum of inflation grows increasingly frantic, and the bass of unemployment starts to emit discordant noises. The tariff policy of the Trump administration is like a lead dancer suddenly changing the choreography, abruptly elevating the once mild 5% twirl to an intense 18% spin, catching all the partners off guard. Economists at JPMorgan have raised the probability of a recession to 65%, a number that is like a clock on the ballroom wall, spinning faster, reminding everyone that midnight is approaching this "dance with recession" festivity, the ghost of stagflation is laughing quietly in the corner, its twisted moves predicting the terrifying combination of economic stagnation and persistent price mikes.

The financial markets, like a sensitive dancer, have already sensed the abnormal vibrations on the floor. The stock market, this typically lively tango dancer, is beginning to falter. Despite recent pullbacks, valuations remain unsettlingly high, like a pair of too-tall heels. The bond market, on the other hand, is like a serious waltz dancer, constantly adjusting its steps under the pressure of inflation expectations.

Most concerning is the Federal Reserve, the orchestra conductor, holding the baton for controlling inflation in its left hand while holding the score to stimulate the economy in its right, struggling to maintain rhythm in this conflicting symphony. The current situation is like a carefully choreographed dance suddenly encountering a stage collapse— 18% tariff barriers are like suddenly elevated stage steps, throwing the complex multinational supply chain into disarray, manufacturing data is like offbeat drumming, fluctuating in strength; consumer confidence sways like an erratic skirt, oscillating between optimism and pessimism. The uniqueness of this economic dance lies in the fact that all the dancers know the music will eventually stop, but no one knows the exact moment, leaving them to continue spinning to the increasingly discordant melody.

Facing the potential disruption of this ongoing economic ball, savvy investors need to rethink their investment choreography. The traditional "buy and hold" strategy is like a nigid dance step that no longer fits in the complex rhythm of stagflation.

Commodities may serve as sturdy dance shoes to combat inflation, while safe-haven assets like gold are reliable partners, providing support as the market spins. Value stocks are like steady old-school dancers, showing enduring appeal during turbulent times. But most importantly, liquidity must be maintained just like a skilled dancer always knows where the exit is. The most ironic aspect of this economic variation is that it is happening against the backdrop of a still-tight labour market, like a crowded ballroom where no one is dancing. Perhaps, as Vanguard suggests, the key issue is not whether an adjustment will happen, but whether we are prepared for the exit route when the ball ends. Among all the economic predictions, the only certainty is the uncertainty itself, and the best response is to maintain flexibility in our steps, always ready to adjust to the changing rhythm of the music. After all, in the eternal dance of the economy, even the most terrifying spectre of stagflation will eventually become a footnote in history books.